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Water conflict typically refers to violence or disputes associated with access to, or control of, water resources, or the use of water or water systems as weapons or casualties of conflicts. The term water war is colloquially used in media for some disputes over water, and often is more limited to describing a conflict between countries, states, or groups over water right to access water resources. The United Nations recognizes that water disputes result from opposing interests of water users, public or private. United Nations Potential Conflict to Cooperation Potential, accessed November 21, 2008 A wide range of water conflicts appear throughout history, though they are rarely traditional wars waged over water alone.Peter Gleick, 1993. "Water and conflict." International Security Vol. 18, No. 1, pp. 79-112 (Summer 1993). Instead, water has long been a source of tension and one of the causes for conflicts. Water conflicts arise for several reasons, including territorial disputes, a fight for resources, and strategic advantage.Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research (Department of Political Science, University of Heidelberg); Conflict Barometer 2007:Crises – Wars – Coups d'État – Nagotiations – Mediations – Peace Settlements, 16th annual conflict analysis, 2007
Water conflicts can occur on the intrastate and interstate levels. Interstate conflicts occur between two or more countries that share a transboundary water source, such as a river, sea, or groundwater basin. For example, the Middle East has only 1% of the world's fresh water shared among 5% of the world's population and most of the rivers cross international borders. Intrastate conflicts take place between two or more parties in the same country, such as conflicts between farmers and urban water users.
Most water-related conflicts occur over fresh water because these resources are necessary for basic human needs but can often be scarce or contaminated or poorly allocated among users. Water scarcity worsens water disputes because of competition for drinking water, irrigation, electricity generation and other needs. Freshwater: lifeblood of the planet, accessed November 21, 2008 As freshwater is a vital, yet unevenly distributed natural resource, its availability often influences the living and economic conditions of a country or region. The lack of cost-effective water supply options in areas like the Middle East, Murakami, Masahiro. 1995. Managing Water for Peace in the Middle East: Alternative Strategies, New York: United Nations University Press. Accessed online November 16, 2008. among other elements of water crises can put severe pressures on all water users, whether corporate, government, or individual, leading to tension, and possibly aggression.[4] United Nations Potential Conflict to Cooperation Potential, accessed November 21, 2008
There is a growing number of water conflicts that go unresolved, largely at the sub-national level, and these will become more dangerous as water becomes more scarce, alter local hydrology, and global population increases.[5] Brooks, Nina. "Impending Water Crisis in China," Arlington Institute. Accessed November 28, 2008. The broad spectrum of water disputes makes them difficult to address, but a wide range of strategies to reduce the risks of such disputes are available. Local and international laws and agreements can help improve sharing of international rivers and aquifers. Improved technology and institutions can both improve water availability and water sharing in water-scarce regions.
Tensions and conflicts over water now occur more frequently at the subnational, rather than the transnational, level. Violence between pastoralists and farmers in sub-Saharan Africa are on the rise. Attacks on civilian water systems during wars that start for other reasons have increased, such as in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and most recently Ukraine. Water scarcity can also exacerbate conflicts and political tensions which are not directly caused by water. Gradual reductions over time in the quality and/or quantity of fresh water can add to the instability of a region by depleting the health of a population, obstructing economic development, and exacerbating larger conflicts.
Climate change and growing global populations also combine to put new pressures on limited water resources and increase the risk of water conflict.
The water wars hypothesis had its roots in earlier research carried out on a small number of transboundary rivers such as the Indus River, Jordan River and Nile. These particular rivers became the focus because they had experienced water-related disputes. Specific events cited as evidence include Israel's bombing of Syria's attempts to divert the Jordan's headwaters, and military threats by Egypt against any country building dams in the upstream waters of the Nile.
Another factor raising the risks of water conflicts is growing competition for water in water-scarce regions, where necessities for water supply for human use, food production, ecosystems and other uses are running up against water availability. Extreme hydrologic events such as floods and droughts are also worsening the risks of water conflicts. As populations and economic development increase, water demands can also increase, worsening disagreements over the allocation and control of limited water in some regions or countries, especially during drought, or in shared international watersheds.
Water resources that span international boundaries are more likely to be a source of collaboration and cooperation than war. Scientists working at the International Water Management Institute have been investigating the evidence behind water war predictions. Their findings show that, while it is true there has been conflict related to water in a handful of international Drainage basin, in the rest of the world's approximately 300 shared Drainage basin the record has been largely positive. This is exemplified by the hundreds of treaties in place guiding equitable water use between nations sharing water resources. The institutions created by these agreements can, in fact, be important factors in ensuring cooperation rather than conflict. Promoting cooperation through management of transboundary water resources, Success Stories, Issue 8, 2010, IWMI
Water-related conflicts are categorized in the Water Conflict Chronology as follows:
Water pollution poses a significant health risk, especially in heavily industrialized, heavily populated areas like China. In response to a worsening situation in which entire cities lacked safe drinking water, China passed a revised Water Pollution Prevention and Control Law.[9] China Daily, Updated February 29, 2008. Accessed November 21, 2008. The possibility of polluted water making its way across international boundaries, as well as unrecognized water pollution within a poorer country brings up questions of human rights, allowing for international input on water pollution. There is no single framework for dealing with pollution disputes local to a nation.
The Indus River Commission and the 1960 Indus Water Treaty have survived two wars between India and Pakistan despite the two countries' mutual hostility, proving a successful mechanism in resolving conflicts by providing a framework for consultation, inspection and exchange of data. It is only now that the treaty has been suspended. The Mekong Committee has functioned since 1957 and outlived the Vietnam War of 1955–1975. In contrast, regional instability results when countries lack institutions to co-operate in regional collaboration, like Egypt's plan for a high dam on the Nile. As of 2019 no global institution supervises the management of trans-boundary water sources, and international co-operation has happened through ad hoc collaboration between agencies, like the Mekong Committee which formed due to an alliance between UNICEF and the US Bureau of Reclamation. Formation of strong international institutions seems to provide a way forward – they encourage early intervention and management, avoiding costly dispute-resolution processes.
The Israel/Jordan Project Prosperity water-for-energy deal, with the cooperation of the UAE, will bring solar generated electricity from Jordan to Israel, and Israel will provide desalinated water to Jordan. The UAE will assist with the installation of the solar power system in Jordan.
One common feature of almost all resolved disputes is that the negotiations had a "need-based" instead of a "right–based" paradigm. Irrigable lands, population, and technicalities of define "needs". The success of a need-based paradigm is reflected in the only water agreement ever negotiated in the Jordan River Basin, which focuses in needs not on rights of riparians. In the Indian subcontinent, the irrigation requirements of Bangladesh determine water allocations of the Ganges River. A need-based, regional approach focuses on satisfying individuals with their need of water, ensuring that minimum quantitative needs are met. It removes the conflict that arises when countries view the treaty from a national-interest point-of-view and move away from a zero-sum approach to a positive-sum, integrative approach that equitably allocates water and its benefits. This means that both equity and efficiency of water use systems become significant, particularly under water scarcity. The combination of these two performance factors should occur in the context of sustainability making continuous cooperation among all the stakeholders in a learning mode highly desirable.
UNESCO has published a map of trans-boundary . Academic work focusing on water disputes has yet to yield a consistent method for mediating international disputes, let alone local ones. But UNESCO faces optimistic prospects for the future as water conflicts become more public, and as increasing severity sobers obstinate interests.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) can arbitrate water disputes presented by its member states when the disputes are commercial in nature. The WTO has certain groups, such as its Fisheries Center, that work to monitor and rule on relevant cases, although it is by no means the authority on conflict over water resources.
Still, water conflict occurring domestically, as well as conflict that may not be entirely commercial in nature may not be suitable for arbitration by the WTO.
Because water is so central to agricultural trade, water disputes may be subtly implicated in WTO cases in the form of virtual water,Morrisette, Jason J. and Douglas A. Borer. "Where Oil and Water Do Mix: Environmental Scarcity and Future Conflict in the Middle East and North Africa." Parameters, Vol. 34, Winter 2004 pp 94-96. water used in the production of goods and services but not directly traded between countries. Countries with greater access to water supplies may fare better from an economic standpoint than those facing crisis, which creates the potential for conflict. Outraged by agriculture subsidies that displace domestic produce, countries facing water shortages bring their case to the WTO.
The WTO plays more of a role in agriculturally based disputes that are relevant to conflict over specific sources of water. Still, it provides an important framework that shapes the way water will play into future economic disputes. One school of thought entertains the notion of war over water, the ultimate progression of an unresolved water dispute—scarce water resources combined with the pressure of exponentially increasing population may outstrip the ability of the WTO to maintain civility in trade issues.Morrisette, p. 99
International competition over water can arise when one country starts drawing more water from a shared water source. This is often the most efficient route to getting needed water, but in the long term can cause conflict if water is Overdrafting. More than 50 countries on five continents are said to be at risk of conflict over water. Moreover, international water law can sometimes exacerbate the potential for conflict: the legal principles of "prior appropriation" and "riparianism" are both implicated in transboundary water conflicts as both can mean that good luck historically and geographically can legally divide countries into those with water abundance and those with scarcity.
Recent interstate conflicts have occurred mainly in the Middle East (disputes stemming from the Euphrates River and shared by Turkey, Syria, and Iraq; and the Jordan River conflict shared by Israel, Lebanon, Jordan and the State of Palestine), in Africa (Nile River-related conflicts among Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan), as well as in Central Asia (the Aral Sea conflict among Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan). In 2022 and 2023, tensions over the Helmand River shared by Iran and Afghanistan have also flared.
As of 2020, China has built 11 dams on the Mekong river, which flows from China through Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam to the South China Sea. Experts fear that China's ability to control the Mekong's flow gives it leverage over downstream nations who rely on China's goodwill. In 2018, water levels in the Mekong River fell to their lowest in more than 100 years, even during the annual monsoon season. The Jinghong Dam, as of January 2020 the nearest Chinese dam upstream of the Thai border, has caused huge fluctuations in river levels, affecting people's livelihoods downstream by disrupting the river's natural cycle.
Conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam escalated in 2020 because of concern the Ethiopian dam on the Blue Nile could reduce flows of water to Egypt, which is highly dependent on Nile River water. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed warned that "No force can stop Ethiopia from building a dam. If there is need to go to war, we could get millions readied."
Egypt sees the dam as an existential threat. Both countries face the threat of water shortage, as demand for water is projected to increase with growing population, increased urbanisation and pursuit of economic growth. Tensions are made worse as a result of fundamental differences in beliefs over water rights; Egypt claims its rights to the Nile water on the basis of historical practice, whereas Ethiopia claims its rights to the water based on geography, where 85% of its water comes from highland sources within its territory. While the Nile Basin Initiative provides a platform to ensure sustainable management of water resources through cooperation of riparian countries, the Cooperative Framework Agreement has only been ratified by six of 11 countries to date.
Competition for transboundary water sources could also be worsened as a result of escalating tensions between countries, as in the case between India and Pakistan. Both countries are highly dependent on the Indus River for water supply, which is governed primarily by the Indus Waters Treaty set out in 1960. In February 2019, India had threatened to cut off water supply to Pakistan, in response to the Kashmir military clash, diverting water to areas like Jammu, Kashmir and Punjab instead. The construction of dams upstream would also result in flooding downstream if water was released too quickly.
Since the two countries share the resources of the Indus water basin, India and Pakistan decided on a notable and influential treaty called the Indus Water Treaty (IWT). The treaty is mediated by the World Bank and regulates the water use and flow of the basin's multiple rivers by each country. The treaty has survived three wars, but seen its share of bilateral strains. Following high tensions in 2019, the Indian Prime Minister threatened to restrict water flow to Pakistan in the region – an act which Pakistan said it would consider an act of war.
Naho Mirumachi and John Anthony Allan proposed the Transboundary Water Interaction Nexus (TWIN) approach in 2007 as a two-dimensional method to approaching water conflict and cooperation.Mirumachi, Naho and John Anthony Allan. "Revisiting Transboundary Water Governance: Power, Conflict, Cooperation and the Political Economy." In CAIWA Conference Paper, 2007, [12], accessed January 2014 This model neglects the conventional linear continuum of conflict and cooperation and instead sees the two as coexisting and not mutually exclusive. They postulate that not all cooperation is good, and not all conflict is bad.Zeitoun, Mark and Naho Mirumachi. "Transboundary Water Interaction I: Reconsidering Conflict and Cooperation." In International Environmental Agreements, 8/4, 2008, pp. 297–316 The TWINS approach can also serve as a useful final step after separate. analyses on cooperative methods and conflict intensity measures.Rein, Marlen. "Power Asymmetry in the Mekong River Basin: The Impact of Hydro-Hegemony on Sharing Transboundary Water." In Vienna Journal of East Asian Studies, Volume 8, eds. Rudiger Frank, Ina Hein, Lukas Pokorny, and Agnes Schick-Chen. Vienna: Praesens Verlag, 2016, pp. 127–162. The model is split into two parts—the horizontal scale (measures cooperation intensity) and the vertical scale (measures conflict intensity).
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